The African Development Bank (AfDB) has released a new report outlining a continent-wide roadmap for harnessing artificial intelligence to boost productivity, accelerate economic growth and drive inclusive development across Africa.
The study, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation, was developed under the G20 Digital Transformation Working Group and provides a strategic overview of how AI could reshape African economies over the next decade. The Bank says the report is designed to shift the AI conversation from potential to implementation.
Conducted by consulting firm Bazara Tech, the analysis estimates that inclusive deployment of AI technologies could generate up to $1 trillion in additional gross domestic product by 2035. This figure is equivalent to nearly one-third of Africa’s current economic output, underscoring the scale of opportunity if adoption is managed effectively.
AI gains expected in key sectors
Rather than being evenly distributed, the report finds that Africa’s AI dividend will be concentrated in a small number of high-impact sectors. Five priority areas are projected to account for 58 percent of total gains, or roughly $580bn by 2035.
Agriculture is expected to capture the largest share at 20 percent, reflecting the potential of AI to improve yields, optimise supply chains and reduce post-harvest losses. Wholesale and retail follow with 14 percent, driven by demand forecasting, logistics optimisation and digital marketplaces. Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are projected to contribute 9 percent, while finance and inclusion account for 8 percent. Health and life sciences round out the priority list at 7 percent.
According to the AfDB, these sectors combine economic scale with readiness to adopt AI tools and the ability to deliver inclusive outcomes, including job creation and improved access to essential services.
AfDB signals readiness to fund early action
‘We have set out the key actions in this report, identifying the areas where initial implementation should be focused,’ said Nicholas Williams, Manager of the ICT Operations Division at the Bank. ‘The Bank is ready to release investment to support these actions. We expect the private sector and governments to utilise this investment to ensure we achieve the identified productivity gains and create quality jobs.’
The report warns that fragmented or uneven adoption could deepen existing disparities between countries and sectors, stressing the need for coordinated policy, regulation and investment.
Five enablers critical to AI adoption
The report identifies five interlinked enablers as essential for unlocking Africa’s AI potential: data, compute, skills, trust and capital.
Reliable and interoperable data is described as the foundation of effective AI systems, while scalable compute infrastructure is needed to deploy solutions efficiently across the continent. Skills development is highlighted as a critical constraint, with the report calling for sustained investment in technical and domain-specific training.
Trust, supported by governance and regulatory frameworks, is seen as vital to encouraging adoption by businesses and citizens. Adequate capital investment is also required to de-risk innovation, crowd in private finance and accelerate deployment. Together, the enablers are expected to ‘foster a cycle of AI-driven growth’, the report says.
Three-phase roadmap to 2035
To translate ambition into results, the AfDB outlines a three-phase roadmap towards Africa’s AI readiness. The ignition phase, running from 2025 to 2027, focuses on foundational investments and pilot initiatives. This is followed by a consolidation phase between 2028 and 2031, aimed at institutionalising successful models. The final scale phase, from 2032 to 2035, seeks to roll out AI solutions at continental scale.
‘Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion,’ said Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development at the Bank. ‘Africa’s challenge is no longer what to do — it is doing it on time.’
