President Ahmed Bola Tinubu will to a large extend influence lot of political decisions in the State using the instrumentality of the APC National leadership and some politicians working with his government
Mr President through his body language will direct the National leadership of the party where his interest is, and the National leadership of the party and his appointees will influence the State executives and statutory delegates to work towards that part.
So what will determine the faith and second tenure bid of Governor Sim Fubara to a large extend is Mr President or those that has the ears of Mr President on the one part, and on the other part, how smart he is able to navigate the game of power by delivery quality people oriented projects and balancing the conflicting interest of key political actors in the state
What do I mean by how smart the governor can balance the conflicting interest of key political players?
If Governor Sim Fubara can smartly manage the interest of the minister and his loyalists while also not offending the sensibility his support base, that will aide in giving him an edge especially when he has very cordial relationship with Mr President and power at the certain
But it will be dangerous and a very fatal political mistake to live under the illusion that going to Abuja or aligning with certain federal forces, some of whom may be enemies of Chief Wike or envious of the loved that Mr President showers on him, will give you an imaginary second tenure bid
Chief Wike is not a political liability and knows how to fight dirty in this game.
Governor Sim Fubara do not have the political bravery and rootlessness to win in this chess game
Although one or two of his foot soldiers (Hon Edison Ehie, Hon Evans Bipi etc) were boys of the minister who learnt the Machavalian principles of power very well from Chief Wike.
These are some of the persons that aided to sustain Governor Sim Fubara’s government during the crisis period aside Mr President
Before you talk about securing a second tenure, try and be in the good books of Mr President, key power brokers in the State and federal and ensure you have firm control of the party structures and a reasonable influence at the party national leadership, else it going to be a difficult task ahead
Politics is not played on the social media
The real game of power is played behind the scene
That you have two million supporters in Rivers State should be the vital thing.
How many of those two million supporters are registered and eligible voters?
How many of those two million supporters are delegates and among the few people that will determine the faith of who flys a party governorship ticket?
How many of those two million supporters are party executives and into key leadership positions that can make critical decisions to favor your second tenure bid?
If you have two million supporters and I have just three vital few (the king makers who can influences major decisions), can’t you see that immediately a decision is made by the vital few, they will influence the decision of majority of your purported two million supporters?
Take for instance, let say you have one million street men out of your two million supporters, and a last minute order comes by their boss to swing to a particular direction, automatically you have lost a sizable numbers of your support based by a simple instructions of the group leaders across the 23 LGA of the State
Same thing is also applicable both in party structures and in the traditional settings, because each traditional ruler has certain interest and can influence some persons within their domain and beyond.
Before you shout on social media, first ask yourself how many delegates and power brokers that you are in control of or can influence in your party?
In real time politics, structure is everything
Structure is power
