Amid its recent struggle to meet local fuel demand, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reportedly reduced its crude oil purchases this month following operational setbacks that have slowed output.
The refinery is expected to purchase fewer than 300,000 barrels a day of crude this month, according to tanker-tracking data and cargo allocation lists.
A report by Bloomberg on Thursday hinted that the development could linger into next year, potentially tightening supply and sustaining the upward pressure on petrol prices across the country.
The amount, which includes local supplies and imports, is down more than 50 per cent from a peak crude purchase of 600,000 barrels per day in July and is less than half the plant’s capacity.
The report noted that the volume of crude purchased by the refinery is crucial to the market, as it plays a significant role in determining the nation’s petrol supply.
The report read, “Nigeria’s huge Dangote oil refinery has been buying a lot less crude lately amid operational setbacks, something analysts say could persist into next year and keep supporting gasoline prices. Dangote is expected to purchase fewer than 300,000 barrels a day of crude this month, according to tanker-tracking data and cargo allocation lists.”
Since starting in 2024, the $20bn Lekki-based facility has transformed oil markets in West Africa and beyond but has faced operational issues, including unplanned outages and sabotage by workers amid reorganisation efforts.
That, along with outages at refineries in places like Europe and the Middle East, helped make gasoline prices unusually high in recent months.
Dangote’s gasoline unit has had several stoppages this year, and it could have to shut down again early next year to complete major work, according to intelligence firm IIR Energy.
Analysts, including consultant FGE NexantECA, are therefore sceptical that the refinery can operate at a high rate going into 2026.
“We think it is likely that Dangote will continue to face issues next year, albeit to a lesser extent than this year,” said Qilin Tam, head of refining at FGE NexantECA.
Unscheduled outages “could add a bullish sentiment to the gasoline market moving forward,” especially ahead of next summer’s driving season.
The plant’s residue fluid catalytic cracker unit was due to restart this week after a hiatus stretching back to late August, according to IIR, which monitors outages.
IIR says major work remains to be completed on the gasoline-making unit and that it could have to shut down again in January.
“European gasoline has been extremely strong as a result of Dangote’s issues,” Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby said.
“At the moment, Dangote’s track record is poor, and if that keeps going, it will be supportive for European gasoline and, to a degree, distillate going forward.”
The report further revealed that 1,500,000 barrels a day of feedstock for this month will come from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited under a recently agreed naira for crude supply deal. NNPC is set to ship a similar amount to Dangote in November, according to cargo allocations seen by Bloomberg.
Since peaking in July, mostly because of bigger imports from the US, the refinery’s crude purchases have slowed, which could reflect lower run rates due to capacity curbs.
Another indication of slowing import demand, according to traders, is that Dangote has yet to place any orders for West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery.
It can still ramp up purchases in the spot market any time, though Crosby said marginal buying decisions are likely to be influenced from month to month depending on operational issues.
Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said run rates should pick up once the current issues are sorted.
Any further operational issues at the refinery would curb crude runs and lead to a lower-value mix of oil products in place of gasoline, said Alan Gelder, WoodMac’s vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets.
That could underpin Dangote’s exports of fuel oil to Asia, a big buyer of the fuel, as well as keep European gasoline flowing to West Africa to make up for the local shortfall, which would support Europe’s refining sector, he said.
An analysis of crude purchases showed that the refinery has processed a total of 3,940,000 barrels of crude per day.
A senior executive of Dangote Industries Limited declined to comment on the current status or future operations of the refinery’s main petrol unit.
